With the NFL Free Agency period over, and the NFL Draft concluding just over two weeks ago, football fans turned their attention to the next publicized event on the NFL calendar: the schedule release. The NFL released the 2021 schedules for all 32 teams this past Wednesday, May 12th. resulting in fans circling certain dates on their calendars, and creating their initial W-L scenarios for their favorite teams.
Upon the schedule release, many pundits have said that the San Francisco 49ers have one of the easier schedules in the NFL. The 49ers, who finished last in the NFC West in 2020 after an injury-riddled campaign, have landed matchups against teams such as the Cincinnati Bengals, Atlanta Falcons, and Philadelphia Eagles, while their division rivals landed much tougher matchups. Here are my initial thoughts to the 49ers’s 2021 schedule.
Every year, I like to separate out the games into must win, winnable, and challenging categories. I try my best to factor in the talent of both teams, approximate fatigue (are they on a short week, are they coming off a bye week), and the influence of being at home or on the road.
The Gimmes
These are the games I like to think of as must win:
Week 1 @ Lions
Week 11 @ Jaguars
Week 14 @ Bengals
Week 17 vs Texans
All four of these teams are in rebuilding mode, as evidenced by the fact that each picked somewhere in the top 7 in this year’s NFL draft (apart from the Texans, who traded their #3 overall pick). The 49ers, who are in win-now mode, are significantly more talented than these teams. When healthy, they field extremely talented players such as Nick Bosa and Fred Warner on defense, and George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, and Deebo Samuel on offense. Looking at the 49ers from top to bottom, I think most can say that they are better each of these four teams top to bottom. Keep in mind that the Lions, Jaguars, and Texans have new coaching staffs, and the Bengals have a second year head coach. All of this makes for a compelling case as to why the 49ers must win these games. A loss is not acceptable, and the players and coaches would most certainly come under scrutiny.
The Winnable
Week 2 @ Eagles
Week51 @ Cardinals
Week 8 @ Bears
Week 9 vs Cardinals
Week 12 vs Vikings
Week 15 vs Falcons
These are games that I believe the 49ers should win. While many would put the Philadelphia Eagles in the must win category due to the fact that they have a first year head coach and second year quarterback, they do have talented players like Darius Slay and Fletcher Cox defensively, and they did beat the 49ers in 2020 at Levi’s Stadium. Hence, I put them in my “winnable” category.
While I never take the Cardinals seriously in the playoffs and don’t expect them to get there in the first place, they do play well within the division. Kyler Murray fits the bill for the 49ers defense’s kryptonite: a mobile quarterback. His pure acceleration and speed, along with top 3 wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, gave the 49ers fits in their Week 1 loss to Arizona in 2020. I expect the 49ers to split the season series with the Cardinals this year.
The Chicago Bears are a winnable game for me. The game will be at Soldier Field on Halloween (which makes for a potentially chilly matchup). They sport an above average defense led by Eddie Jackson in the secondary, and Khalil Mack and Roquan Smith in the front 7. Offensively, they have plenty of talent in Tarik Cohen and Allen Robinson, as well as rookie quarterback Justin Fields, who they drafted with the 11th pick in this year’s draft. Still, I believe that the 49ers are more talented than Chicago offensively and defensively, and have a superior coaching staff, which makes this a winnable game.
Next up on the list are the Vikings. They have reigning rookie of the year Justin Jefferson, as well as Adam Thielen at wide receiver. Dalvin Cook has established himself as a top 5-7 running back in the NFL. Say what you want about Kirk Cousins being unable to win playoff games, he is a reliable quarterback in the regular season. Put that together with Mike Zimmer, an experienced defensive mind, as head coach, and you have a job on your hands if you’re San Francisco. Again, I believe the 49ers sport more talent than Minnesota offensively and defensively, have better coaching, and are playing at home, hence why this is a winnable game.
The Atlanta Falcons have Matt Ryan, who is an experienced veteran at the quarterback position. They have Julio Jones, who I believe is the best wide receiver in the NFL, and matchup nightmare Kyle Pitts, who they drafted at #4 overall this year, at tight end. These players will give the 49ers a tough time defensively. Additionally, Atlanta showed in 2019 that they are capable of beating San Francisco, despite having less talent and having to play on the road. These factors make this a winnable, yet worrisome game for the 49ers.
The Challenging
Week 3 vs Packers
Week 4 vs Seahawks
Week 7 vs Colts
Week 10 vs Rams
Week 13 @ Seahawks
Week 16 @ Tennessee
Week 18 @ Rams
Note a common theme between all of these teams: they all made the playoffs last year. Additionally, they each won at least 10 games last year, which is a great indication that they are solid NFL teams from top to bottom. In recent memory, the Packers have been a Super Bowl contender, going 13-3 and reaching the NFC Championship Game, the past two years. Aaron Rodgers, assuming he still stays in Green Bay, always gives them a chance to win. While the 49ers aren’t the same team that kicked the Packers’ a** two years ago, they also aren’t the injury-riddled team they were last year in their loss to Green Bay on Thursday Night Football. I believe this will be a competitive game with a lot of points scored, and will be a good test for the 49ers early on in the season.
The Seattle Seahawks have been the 49ers’ weakness over the past 8 years. Starting with the Legion of Boom in 2013, and continuing up to this day, they always seem to have the 49ers’ number. As a 49ers fan, I want that to change, but with Russell Wilson at quarterback, I don’t see that happening. Like Kyler Murray, Wilson is a mobile quarterback who is known for his ability to extend plays (aka the 49ers’ kryptonite). Adding in the fact that fans will be allowed in stadiums this year means the 49ers will have to face that raucous Seattle crowd in their annual trip to CenturyLink Field this fall. All these factors make for two very intriguing, yet challenging, matchups between the two sides this year.
The 49ers have had the Los Angeles Rams’ number in recent memory, sweeping them in each of the past two years. However, the Rams have added new firepower to their already prolific offense, trading for former Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford early in the offseason. Stafford is a major upgrade over former quarterback Jared Goff, who the 49ers defense feasted on in their four previous matchups. While the Rams lost defensive coordinator Brandon Staley to the Chargers, they still bring back almost every player from the #1 defensive unit in 2020. The matchups between these two divisional foes in 2021, including one on Monday Night Football, should see two tough defenses, two prolific rushing attacks, and two great head coaches battle it out in Cali.
The Colts and 49ers are two very similar teams in my opinion. Both operate under the philosophy of “you win in the trenches”. The 49ers heavily invested in their offensive and defensive lines this offseason by signing Trent Williams, Alex Mack, and Samson Ebukam, and drafting Aaron Banks and Jaylon Moore. The Colts drafted Kwity Paye, a defensive lineman, with their first round pick this year. They also have former 49ers star pass rusher Deforest Buckner, as well as Quenton Nelson who many consider to be the best interior offensive lineman in the NFL. The 49ers will certainly be the fresher of the two teams, coming off of a Week 6 Bye. This Sunday Night Football matchup promises to be a battle of the trenches, in what is personally my favorite game on the schedule.
The Tennessee Titans are a physical football team, which also matches the 49ers’ style of play. Nothing embodies this more than a 200+ pound running back who ran over people on his way to 2000 rushing yards and the rushing title last season. Additionally, AJ Brown has established himself as one of the toughest wide receivers in the NFL. His physicality along with his ability to make contested catches makes him a dangerous player for any defense. What makes this game even more challenging for the 49ers is its placement in the schedule. The 49ers are scheduled to play the Titans on a short week on Thursday Night Football in Tennessee. This means a road trip to the east coast, to play a physical football team. I believe home field advantage will play a big role in this game, and the 49ers will find it tough to walk out of this game with a win.